June PMIs: A Much Better Month for the United States Than Euroland
The U.S. minus Ezone purchasing managers differential among manufacturers swung from negative 1.1 in May to +3.3 in June, and the spread between their respective service-sector PMI readings rose a full point from negative 1.4 in May to minus 0.4 last month. All four PMI levels in June, shown in the bottom row of the table below, remained above 50.0, indicating positive growth, but all four measures were closer to 50.0 in May than June, thus connoting slower rates of expansion last month. America’s advantage was that its slowdowns in both manufacturing and services were less pronounced than Europe’s. Likewise, the possibility of a default seems much more likely in Euroland’s periphery than in the United States, but the United States has more debt than Europe and would create a messier default if, God forbid, the unthinkable were to happen. In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king, yet the dollar continues to trade more weakly than $1.40. How weak is that? In the entire postwar period when the D-mark was Europe’s dominant currency, such never got stronger than the euro-translation value of $1.4541, and that happened way back in March 1995.
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U.S. | Ezone | U.S. | Ezone | Sum of |
| Services | Services | Spread | Mf’g | Mf’g | Spread | Spreads |
| Feb 2009 | 42.1 | 39.2 | +2.9 | 35.7 | 33.5 | +2.2 | +5.1 |
| March | 41.2 | 40.9 | +0.3 | 36.4 | 33.9 | +2.5 | +2.8 |
| April | 43.9 | 43.8 | +0.1 | 40.4 | 36.8 | +3.6 | +3.7 |
| May | 44.5 | 44.8 | -0.3 | 43.2 | 40.7 | +2.5 | +2.2 |
| June | 46.3 | 44.7 | +1.6 | 45.3 | 42.6 | +2.7 | +4.3 |
| July | 46.7 | 45.7 | +1.0 | 49.1 | 46.3 | +2.8 | +3.8 |
| August | 48.2 | 49.9 | -1.7 | 52.8 | 48.2 | +4.6 | +2.9 |
| Sept | 50.1 | 50.9 | -0.8 | 52.4 | 49.3 | +3.1 | +2.3 |
| October | 50.1 | 52.6 | -2.5 | 55.2 | 50.7 | +4.5 | +2.0 |
| November | 48.4 | 53.0 | -4.6 | 53.7 | 51.2 | +2.5 | -2.1 |
| December | 49.8 | 53.6 | -3.8 | 54.9 | 51.6 | +3.3 | -0.5 |
| Jan 2010 | 50.5 | 52.5 | -2.0 | 58.4 | 52.4 | +6.0 | +4.0 |
| Feb | 52.7 | 51.8 | +0.9 | 57.1 | 54.2 | +2.9 | +3.8 |
| March | 54.1 | 54.1 | 0.0 | 60.4 | 56.6 | +3.8 | +3.8 |
| April | 54.6 | 55.6 | -1.0 | 59.6 | 57.6 | +2.0 | +1.0 |
| May | 54.8 | 56.2 | -1.4 | 57.8 | 55.8 | +2.0 | +0.6 |
| June | 53.5 | 55.5 | -2.0 | 55.3 | 55.6 | -0.3 | -2.3 |
| July | 53.7 | 55.8 | -2.1 | 55.1 | 56.7 | -1.6 | -3.7 |
| August | 52.8 | 55.9 | -3.0 | 55.2 | 55.1 | +0.1 | -2.9 |
| Sept | 53.9 | 54.1 | -0.2 | 55.3 | 53.7 | -0.4 | -0.6 |
| October | 54.6 | 53.3 | +1.3 | 56.9 | 54.6 | +2.3 | +3.6 |
| November | 56.0 | 55.4 | +0.6 | 58.2 | 55.3 | +2.9 | +3.5 |
| December | 57.1 | 54.2 | +2.9 | 58.5 | 57.1 | +1.4 | +4.3 |
| Jan 2011 | 59.4 | 55.9 | +3.5 | 60.8 | 57.3 | +3.5 | +7.0 |
| Feb | 59.7 | 56.8 | +2.9 | 61.4 | 59.0 | +2.4 | +5.3 |
| March | 57.3 | 57.2 | +0.1 | 61.2 | 57.5 | +3.7 | +3.8 |
| April | 52.8 | 56.7 | -3.9 | 60.4 | 58.0 | +2.4 | -1.5 |
| May | 54.6 | 56.0 | -1.4 | 53.5 | 54.6 | -1.1 | -2.5 |
| June | 53.3 | 53.7 | -0.4 | 55.3 | 52.0 | +3.3 | +2.9 |
Copyright 2011 Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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